Introduction to forecasting

09:00-10:30

Lab sessions

Lab Session 11

• Produce forecasts using an appropriate benchmark method for household wealth (hh_budget). Plot the results using autoplot().
• Produce forecasts using an appropriate benchmark method for Australian takeaway food turnover (aus_retail). Plot the results using autoplot().

Lab Session 12

• Compute seasonal naïve forecasts for quarterly Australian beer production from 1992.
• Test if the residuals are white noise. What do you conclude?

Lab Session 13

• Create a training set for household wealth (hh_budget) by withholding the last four years as a test set.
• Fit all the appropriate benchmark methods to the training set and forecast the periods covered by the test set.
• Compute the accuracy of your forecasts. Which method does best?
• Repeat the exercise using the Australian takeaway food turnover data (aus_retail) with a test set of four years.