Hierarchical forecasting

15:30-17:00

Date

18 September 2023

Lab sessions

Lab Session 20

  • Prepare aggregations of the PBS data by Concession, Type, and ATC1.
  • Use forecast reconciliation with the PBS data, using ETS, ARIMA and SNAIVE models, applied to all but the last 3 years of data.
  • Which type of model works best?
  • Does the reconciliation improve the forecast accuracy?
  • Why doesn’t the reconciliation make any difference to the SNAIVE forecasts?